Thoughts on The Iowa and Wyoming Caucuses

Well the first two caucuses in the country are done (well one and a half actually since only the Republicans had a caucus in Wyoming this past week). So far the voting is looking a bit ADD to me but there were several surprises.

On the Democratic side of things I was mostly surprised. Obama wining didnt surprise me too much though, he has a excellent organization. I can see why he’s getting so much support, and having Oprah at his back certainly helped. For Democrats the message of change is always a winner. But I wonder if he will be able to capitalize on this pop in the polls.

Edwards placing second surprised the heck out of me though, I have maintained that he was done back in 2000. He really is the guy that just won’t die. If he places second again in NH and then takes SC like he did in 2004 the talk that he is a sleeper may be warranted. I still don’t think he can win the nomination but he may get a nod for VP yet again. He would be a great running mate for Obama. Also the Dems would be smart to concentrate on youth this cycle, it will give the possible administration longevity which is something Bush’s administration lacked (thank god for that).

Hillary doing poorly was another surprise, I really thought she would have had a close win in Iowa or would have at least placed a close second. Her numbers show that this really is an open election and that no one is safe. I think shes going to have an upward battle in both NH and SC too, she may have to hope she can keep it together until the bigger states hit the polls. Personally I think she needs to use her husband less and try to find a more positive energy to excite people.

I was pleased that Bill Richards pulled the 2% he did, it’s always nice to see when at least some people recognize talent when they see it. Who knows maybe Bill could contend for VP as a fresh face over Edwards, but he will have to survive through SC to pull it off.

Biden and Dodd doing miserable and promptly dropping out was no surprise. Being a career Washington insider never helps your chances and few are more “inside” than those two.

Huckabee winning in Iowa was a total shock, it really shows how much sway Christian groups have in that party. Then again having 5 candidates within a 24 point spread really illustrates that the GOP is moving in a new direction, but who the hell knows what direction it might be. Now Huckabee didn’t even place in Wyoming and I’m wondering if most of the GOP field was even on the ballot since only three candidates pulled numbers. Like Obama I wonder if Huckabee can translate this win into a another win in NH though.

Romney did well in Iowa and won in Wyoming that sets him up well for NH. But he has also been doing a lot of negative campaigning which I know works sometimes but for many people its a turn off. With a race so close its a very risky gamble to go negative. He is certainly not a lock in NH because hes not so popular in MA but who knows.

John McCain tied for third in Iowa which isn’t bad since it looked like his bid totally self destructed a few months back. He could also be a threat in NH since he remains popular there. If he doesn’t do well in NH though hes going to have very large up hill battle, and it might even be the end of the line for him since doing bad in NH will inhibit his ability to raise funds that he desperately needs .

Fred Thompson tied in Iowa with McCain and placed second in Wyoming. He did only slightly better then I thought he would. He has really failed to set himself apart from the other candidates so far and with numbers like this I’d be surprised if he makes it to SC. In Iowa he really seems to have just split the vote between Ron Paul and McCain. Placing second in a field of only three candidates in Wyoming, one of which being Duncan Hunter who’s totally off the radar. With these showings I really don’t see how hes going to survive NH where Romney,McCain,Paul, and now Huckabee are dumping loads of energy. Bottom line is he hasn’t been able to translate that pre-campaign hype into votes and in the end thats what you need to do.

Ron Paul did very well and if he does well again in NH he could be a threat. Another thing that will play into his favor is if Thompson or possibly McCain drop out after NH. Now I don’t think he can win but I think he might pull a Howard Dean and use his delegate power to become the party leader or possibly VP. Heck it could even open the door for an eventual Senate bid if he does well in Texas. This campaign can really open doors for him since hes the only real voice that Libertarians have in the GOP.

Rudy Giuliani has become the vacuum of votes and I couldn’t be happier. That said he has been concentrating on larger states and has the war chest to sit out the early contests and play the numbers game later on. I don’t expect him to do well in NH, but he may draw a line in SC and become more of a threat there after. Keep an eye on this shifty character hes far from done.

Now the Libertarian Party has been pretty quiet and hasnt even updated its site since before Christmas. That said us Libertarians are pretty ho-hum about nominating a presidential candidate. Our convention isn’t until the end of May (in Denver), but right now Wayne Allyn Root seems to be the front runner. Ill keep you posted as things develop.

***I got my info on Iowa here, and Wyoming here

*** no one seems to have really good numbers for Wyoming, if anyone has a better source please let me know.